The NPL market is more than ever in the spotlight. Going from the definition to what is changing in the regulatory framework, this article tries to understand the potentiality of this market in terms of risk/return, what is changing and why some of the most important PE funds around the world are raising capital to be invested in this asset class.
No period in history better demonstrates the need for portfolio diversification than the late 90s Tech Bubble and the March 2000 crash. In the public markets and at the height of the bubble, speculators were in such a frenzy to get a hold of technology stocks that any newly listed stock with the word “tech” or “.com” in their name could shoot up over 100% in one day. Many of these companies had yet to properly develop their products and their financial health was often very uncertain, yet they commanded prices at very high price to earnings multiples. In private markets there was also a strong appetite among VC firms to invest in the technology sector and bring the burgeoning amount of tech startups to public markets in IPO exits.
On October 17th, 2017 it was announced that $104 millions were raised from a group of private equity firm by Vacasa LLC, an online vacation rental company set to expand internationally and challenge the biggest player of the sector, Airbnb.
The Harvard MBA indicator was started and maintained by Roy Soifer, consultant and former HBS student. It represents a long-term stock market indicator that evaluates the percentage of Harvard Business School graduates that accept "market sensitive" jobs in fields such as investment banking, securities sales & trading, private equity and venture capital. If more than 30% of a year's graduating class take jobs in these areas, the Harvard MBA Indicator creates a sell signal for stocks. Conversely, if less than 10% of graduates take jobs in this sector, it represents a long-term buy signal for stocks. In addition, it is also useful to analyse the attractiveness of jobs in finance. Indeed, during the last decade, the indicator has been heavily skewed towards jobs in sectors such as Venture Capital and Private Equity and, in particular after the crisis, Harvard MBA alumni have even further shunned IB and IM.
At the beginning of this academic year we had the pleasure to interview Edoardo Lanzavecchia. Since 2007, he has been a senior partner at Alpha, a pan-European mid-cap private equity firm with €2 billions under management. He is considered one of the veterans of the Italian Private Equity industry. In 1998 he founded and was head of The Carlyle Group in Italy, and then also founded Magenta SGR.
The European bond market is still under the effect of ECB’s quantitative easing lowering yields to sub-zero levels and, on the stock market side of things, valuations are at all times high making the quest for an index-beating return even harder. This translates many investors to allot their funds towards junk bonds.